East Med is a Pipe Dream

While the Leviathan could have some positive regional impacts, talk of the Eastern Mediterranean becoming a major source of European energy is similarly overblown. The EU Commission selected the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline as a “project of common interest,” warranting it further study.

The pipeline would run from Cyprus to Crete and then to continental Europe. EU officials are attracted to the idea because it would allow Europe to slash its dependence on Russian gas, and with Greece’s economy mired in deep depression, the East Med Pipeline could be viewed as an economic development project for Southern Europe. However, there are several reasons this project won’t move beyond the dream phase. First, building a pipeline over such a vast distance, and through deep Mediterranean waters, would be prohibitively expensive.

The pipeline from Cyprus to Crete alone could cost $20 billion. Second, the politics are dreadfully complicated. The longstanding division of Cyprus stands in the way of a cheaper pipeline route through Turkey. In fact, Turkey flatly objects to the development of gas in Cypriot waters, which it does not recognize—a dynamic that won’t change anytime soon. There are several LNG alternatives for the Leviathan. An LNG terminal in Cyprus has been looked at. This would allow for more flexibility than a long-distance pipeline and is probably the most economical route for large-scale gas exports. However, the site location at Vassilikos is small, raising engineering questions. Furthermore, Israel wants to ensure it maximizes export revenues and can properly manage the facility’s security, making a terminal outside of Israeli territory unlikely. 

 An alternative is an LNG facility within Israel, but environmental opposition, interference with tourist destinations, and competition for space with container ports present challenges to this approach. Limited Energy Hub The development of the Leviathan, which is again inching forward now that the Israeli government is settling its differences with Noble Energy and Delek Group, could be a significant milestone for the region. It will introduce a very large source of natural gas for Israel and its neighbors, providing an economic boost while offering potentially positive (although largely theoretical) geopolitical benefits. But talk of a larger “game changer” with the Leviathan is quite clearly overstated. Energy trade can contribute to positive cooperation, but it is unlikely to single-handedly transform the longstanding points of conflict between Israel and its neighbors. Furthermore, exports to Europe are questionable, if not unlikely. A pipeline is too expensive, and LNG export terminals face technical challenges, not to mention long lead times. As a result, offshore gas in the Eastern Mediterranean will likely remain a regional story, rather than a global one.